Monday, October 31, 2005

Mugged by Econometrics and other insane ramblings

Yeah I have just recovered from the examination I gave. The subject "Basic Methods in Econometrics"
Don’t go by the name (Didn’t Shakespeare say something to the effect that names might be misleading?), there was nothing "Basic" about it.

So all of the weekend with the best sunny weather in all of Europe, and I am sitting alone in the dormitory and cramming my notes of econometrics.

Looking and the Ordinary least squares how they are consistent, but biased when there is heteroskedasticity in the sample.
The best unbiased linear estimator using the generalized least squares is

b = X(X'X)^(-1)X'y
and the residuals are ...
And b is asymptotically normally distributed in ...
And how to use the Newey West correction for removing the Heteroskedasticty, but the white correction for Autocorrelation works better.

All samples Estimate of Asymptotic Variance is normally distributed...

And the Dickey Fuller test for a Random walk with a time trend fails when the Durbin Watson Statistic is significantly lower than 2.
And though the Null hypothesis is not rejected we cannot even accept it. (No doubt it’s a "NULL" hypothesis)

And if you figured out something here then you should have met me earlier and given me tutorials on econometrics

Anyways this exam scared the shit out of many people.
Though 40 people had attended the first class, only 20 registered for the course, and then only 10 were left till the last class. All exchange students (other than 3 idiotic Indians) dropped the course as they wanted to pass
All the Germans dropped the course as they thought this would harm their grade.

I thought come on, passing is not a problem, lemme give it a try

And yes yesterday night these Kwiatowski Phillips Schmidt Shin (KPSS) tests for significance put the fear of God in an Atheist like me.

More over, to reduce our degrees of freedom, the exam was a closed book one.
And to complicate matters further I lost my room key.

So all of yesterday night I sat in the common room, studying and slept for 2 hours only on the cramped sofa, woke up late and ran to the exam just to find out that my keys were in Mangu's (fellow Indian who lives in adjacent room) bag. Damn !!!

Anyways as I reach the examination hall realize only 6 were giving the exam as the other 4 Germans chickened out. (3 Germans giving the exam were in top 4 students in WHU)
As pointed out by Arnim, only one out of those 3 WHU is in the top, of the others, one has a job offer already from Morgan Stanley (so isnt worried bout grades) and the other girl studies a lot (or so i think)
SO ALL WHU STUDENTS sorry if ou were offended by this post

Now reasonably sure that the professor wouldn’t flunk with such poor attendance, I took a deep breath, said a prayer and begun writing.

Thankfully the exam was a simple one. Barely finished the paper on time, and thus though I was looking to just pass, I am sure that I have done well. (With a high significance at the 99% level, t statistic being high, though some high variances in the grades of the other students might lead to a lower weight age given to my score. Though my expectations are high the third moment (skew) and the fourth moment (kurtosis) might lead to large errors in the forecast and the residual score which I get might be minimized.

Anyways I don’t realize why do I take such courses, where I need to study? (Or Mug a lot as an IIMA student might say?)

Whereas guys like Amod don’t take courses with less than 50% women in the class, I am stuck with these courses with the distribution of women is bivariate. Either 1 or none!

Anyways Mangu is telling me to stop this idiotic monologue and go cook some thing for lunch,

Tonight is the Haloween Party at the Dormitory

And one of the most holy days for all Hindus

So wish u guys a happy diwali and I am all set to enjoy the Halloween party.
More pictures and detailed stories shall soon follow.


Anonymous said...

I love to suffer with you, Nirav.

your fellow WHU student

amit said...

nirav man..u saved us that day..too bad you wouldnt be here for the nov 23rd exam...oh ya and please go easy on the whu students here mate..your raw intellect scares one and all!! :)