India - some facts and charts about the last year

My Friend Pranav Kumar put up a post on Facebook about the negativity in India about the current year.


Pasting his post Verbatim

Tired of some of the fact-free negativity around India. So putting it out there (I put this as comment on FT):

Some big picture facts on Modi's 1st Year (Using nos for Apr 14-Mar 15):

1. Real GDP growth - 7.3% (vs 6.9% year earlier)

2. Inflation - 3.8% at end of July'15 (vs 7.73% in Aug'14)

3. Net accrual in Foreign Reserves - $61 bn (vs $16 bn last year).

4. Net FDI flows - $33 bn (vs $22 bn last year)

5. Current account deficit - $ -28 bn (down from -$32 bn last year). Much lower as % GDP

6. Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) - 3.99% (vs 4.5% last year)

7. Rupee - one of the best performers among all EMs.

8. Financial inclusion - 175 million households enrolled into banking system - this is more than what UPA achieved in last 3 years as per CMIE. Similar scale difference on toilets in schools.

9. Resource auctions - Rs 3 Lac Crores income - that's 18% of annual central budget - for government from Coal and Telecom auctions which were done transparently (as opposed to Congress which gave them to cronies and now the ministers are being probed/jailed). Govt is tracking on goals of 24/7 electricity.

10. Foreign policy - Modi's performance is by far way ahead of any other prime minister.


(Source: RBI, CSO)
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Sounds like a fantastic year to me. However much Modi's critics want him to fail, his own excellence plus the oil windfall has led to great results in year 1. Happy independence day!

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I decided to do put up charts (Note the change in trajectory for the last one year versus previous 5)

All data is from Bloomberg, and tried to use it from 30-Jun-2009 where available (since thats post Great Financial Crisis - which distorted lot of data in 2007, 2008 and some part of 2009)

Some places where data series has changed (e.g. CPI or GDP) I have used old and new series for what ever time line is available. 



India GDP
White - New Series (not enough data); Yellow - Old Series



India Inflation
Yellow - Wholesale Price Inflation; White - Consumer Price Inflation (new series, no history) 




India FX Reserves (USD trillion) 


India Current Account Balance (USD billion per quarter) 

India Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 
EM Currencies Performance - 2009-14
(Total Return = Interest + Currency Performance) 

EM Currencies Performance - 2015 




Conclusion:

While in the previous 5 years India was getting worse, some of the remedial measures have been taken by RBI governor and then Finance Minister in 2013, but now from 2014, India is surely on a firm footing.

Thoughts on Singapore

Singapore recently celebrated 50 years of being an independent nation, and there was a huge amount of celebration, and rightly so. (I though used the holidays to get out of Singapore and get a cheap holiday)

I have spent the last 5 years here, and despite my love hate relationship with Singapore, this city has given me a lot.
From a directionless and choppy career in banking, atleast this place has let me firm up my goals and career interests.

Thanks to my regular pub quiz nights (Tuesday Trivia), I do have friends from various nationalities and backgrounds, while earlier in London and Dubai, all my friends were either Indians or Bankers ... and then the conversation gets extremely boring.

Singapore is one of the few truly global cities, where no matter where you are from, it can be like home.

Though my own assimilation in Singapore remains incomplete. I scored 4/5 on this test of Singlish

Some more links about Singapore (thanks to social media)
50 reasons why Singapore is the best City - CNN
50 pictures of old Singapore you might not have seen before
Kishore Mahubani on Why Singapore is the worlds most successful society

Tyler Cowen (blogger at Marginal Revolution and Prof at George Washington University) has a few great posts on Singapore. At times it takes an independent outsider to be able to get an accurate view

Why is Singapore Special - Great Leadership, efficient bureaucracy, great food.
A Simple Theory of Singapore Complaints - Many Singapore residents would be better off if in some regards the country were not so nice. That is a hard problem to solve, but in some ways a nice problem to have.
Singapore as a Financial Corporation - this is the best one, its basically a mega hedge fund with some citizens.

Some of the recent success, (especially financial) has come with the twin tail winds -
1. Easy US monetary policy (US Federal Reserve printing money, and this easy money leaking into emerging markets)
2. Breakneck Chinese Growth (and probably a lot of it debt fuelled)
These two phenomenons are now reversing, and thus the tailwinds would turn to headwinds.
Though given the strong institutions built in Singapore, it should be robust enough to withstand the turning tide.

While the last 5 years have been enjoyable roller coaster ride for me, looking forward for 5 more.

Mahjula Singapura! (Onward Singapore)

P.S. - For the Trivia Nerds some #SG50 questions from the great Caleb Liu (picked from his FB wall)

1. There are two other countries that gained their independence in 1965, both former British colonies like Singapore. The first is the smallest country in mainland Africa by area, the second is an island nation and archipelago. Can you name them?

2. Buildings in Singapore have a maximum height restriction due to aircraft overflight restrictions - what is the maximum height in metres? Also, three buildings share the honour of being the tallest in Singapore as they are all built to this maximum height. What are the three buildings?

3. Which seafood restaurant, which still has a prominent outlet near the East Coast Park lagoon, is famous for inventing pepper crab (Note NOT Chillli Crab which is disputed)?

4. Singapore's MRT system was first opened in 1987 with a stretch of 5 stations running between which two stations? Name both of them.

5. Which area of Singapore has a name that originates from Kampong Shan Ting or literally "pavilions on the green" which accounts for the colourful roofs of its HDB flats. It also formerly contained a canal known as "dead chicken river" because people used to throw dead animal carcasses into it?

Crumbling Rupee, the reasons and the solution

I think the value (or lack of) the currency exchange rate has reached the common man. As a Non Resident Indian, visiting India, its surprising to find taxi and autorickshaw drivers complaining about the falling rupee. This has caused a lot of debate in social media and others, and these are my thoughts 

Do note: This blog is my personal view, and doesn't reflect the view of my employers. 

The main reason for falling rupee was that India Imports more than it Exports. Though the rupee was stable, since this trade deficit was being financed by foreign portfolio flows investing in Indian equities and debt, and suddenly with signs of US economy improving, they are moving their money out. 

Looking at numbers: Imports $40bn a month, Exports $32bn a month (goods + services) 
Hence now India needs to buy this $8bn a month (add to the selling by foreigners) at the prevailing price in the market, and due to laws of supply and demand, rupee is falling.

India is particularly vulnerable as it runs a twin deficit. A trade deficit (imports more than exports) and a fiscal deficit (government spends more than it collects via taxation). 

What caused the sudden spiral? 
The straw which broke the camels back, was the US Federal Reserve announcing tapering the pace of 'Quantitative Easing' (In simple language printing money to buy back their debt) 
Though the intention was to keep interest rates low to boost growth in US, (companies could borrow to invest, households could borrow to buy houses and consumer goods) the side effect was many investors chose to invest overseas for higher yield in Emerging Markets, and India was one of them. 
Now as US yields rise, India doesnt look as attractive anymore. 

Why is India more vulnerable than other Emerging Market Countries? 
Simply put, India imports more than it exports. The balance was being financed by foreigners buying Indian stocks, bonds, and Indian companies borrowing offshore, plus some remittances by NRIs. 
Looking at some numbers: 
Imports: USD 40bn a month, of which crude oil is $15bn, Gold and Silver is $5bn, Coal and Iron Ore is $2bn. Rest is flat screen TVs, iPhones, iPads and what not.
Exports: Goods worth $25bn, and Services (software and BPO)  $7bn. 
Thus India has a trade deficit of USD 8bn a month. 


Shouldn't weaker Rupee imports fall and exports rise? Now with India's imports they have been fairly inelastic, (falling rupee hasnt seen the volumes of imports falling) which is mainly due to 

1. due to subsidies on oil products (diesel, kerosene, and LPG) consumers don't feel the pinch of the rising prices directly. The deficit is borne by the taxpayers indirectly. 
2. Indians have a cultural affinity for Gold, when rupee falls, Gold looks more like a safe haven, though it behaves like a speculative asset. (i.e. when price rises, demand also rises) 
3. India has one of the largest reserves of coal and iron ore. But due to the corruption in handing out mining licenses, there have been lot of court cases under RTI. Hence the supreme court has put a blanket ban on mining coal and iron ore. This has caused India to move from Net Exporter to Net importer of coal and iron ore. 

Exports too have been inelastic. i.e. volumes havent gone up, despite falling rupee making it cheaper 

1. Constraints of manpower (bad labour laws) and electric power supply make scaling up in manufacturing difficult. 
2. Textile industry which was a pollutant has been shut down and mostly relocated to Bangladesh and Vietnam. 
3. while US and Europe seem to have come out of recession, their growth isn't so high that their demand for Indian exports rises.

Why don't we see Foreign Direct Investment - given India's size and consumer demand?
India's rules and red tape have made it quiet unattractive. 
e.g. after all approvals, Vendanta and Posco's aluminium and bauxite investment plans were vetoed by tribal families (~300 families). These investments were worth billions of USD. 
There is no clarity on FDI in retail, or in many other sectors. 
Post the Vodafone case, the GAAR rule on taxation and retrospective taxation makes it difficult for people to want to invest in India.
Also note, US economy is 8-9 times the size of the Indian Economy. Hence when US was growing sub 1% and India more than 9% investing in India looked attractive. 
When US economy is expected to grow at 2.5-3.0% and Indian economy at 4.5% India doesnt seem as attractive (due to low base) 

Despite these reasons why the sudden large moves? 
Basically once it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy we can see large scale capital flight. 
Exporters will not remit money back to India and keep money offshore. 
Importers will over-invoice and transfer money offshore.
NRIs might choose to wait before remitting (since they feel will get it cheaper a month later)
Some portfolio investors seeing the crashing rupee and the stock market would panic and sell their Indian investments. 
This is more due to crisis of confidence, and this is where the Finance Ministry and the Reserve Bank of India can step in to curb this crisis of confidence. 
But in the longer run India should address the fault lines. 

Even other currencies are falling (South African Rand, Brazilian Real, Indonesian Rupiah, Turkish Lira) 
These countries too have a large current account deficit. At the other end of the spectrum are South Korean Won and Taiwan Dollar, which have done well, as they are net exporters, and stand to benefit from US and Europe growth picking up.

Why can't RBI do anything? 
RBI has a trilemma, to maintain stability in inflation, growth and currency (or current account) 
It cant have all 3 together, and one has to be sacrificed. 
The only tools it has is interest rates and money supply, and given the problems are fiscal, RBI's monetary policy cant do much. 
(they have hiked rates to protect the currency, but that makes growth come lower)
Given the problem is fiscal and political, the solution too should come from politicians and not RBI.

What has been done to address the fall?
RBI has hiked short term interest rates by 3%, and raised taxes on Gold imports, curbed speculation by banks, and limited amount of money that can be remitted offshore by locals. 
Finance Ministry has announced duties on imports and curbs on getting in Flat Screen TVs.
They have also let Oil Marketing Companies borrow USD directly from RBI via a swap line. (which can be repaid later, IF rupee becomes stronger)
I think these measures are short term at best.

In the longer run more structural issues need to be addressed.
Reviving stalled power projects, reform of labor laws would go some distance in improving productivity and raising our goods exports. 
Tightening the belt on fiscal spending, should keep inflation in check and regain investors confidence to buy Indian assets when they are cheap. 

For more see the video with Arun Shourie (ex minister for disinvestment in the NDA government) and Ruchir Sharma (of Morgan Stanley Investment Management) discuss the "Rise and Fall of Indian Economy" with Prannoy Roy of NDTV. 
http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/ndtv-special-ndtv-24x7/the-rise-and-fall-of-india-s-economy/287650?curl=1377409227

What can an ordinary citizen do? 
There isn't much at an individual level. Each one buying swadeshi goods doesn't solve the bigger problem. (There is no Swadeshi Oil)
Voting for a party which is willing to take short term pain for longer term development might be the answer. (Don't know which party though)

After US mortgage crisis (leveraged households), European sovereign debt crisis (leveraged peripheral European nations), we might see the beginning of the Asian Financial Crisis (leveraged corporates) and this might be as bad as the Asian crisis in 1997-98.
Hence we might see things get worse before they get better. 

I do believe India has enough low hanging fruit, and the right political will should see growth rising again. 
This crisis might just force the leaders to take tougher decisions.

The Unlucky Man

Mukund was traveling from Jamnagar to Bombay (as Mumbai was called back then) in a third class compartment with 2 letters, a matriculation certificate, a pair of clothes and almost no money. The year was 1942, and India was in midst of turmoil with the struggle for freedom against the British Empire, and the world was involved in the World War.

Mukund was always thought of to be unlucky. He was born on Amavaysa (No Moon Night), considered extremely inauspicious. In Brahmin families those days, it seemed that your fate was written, depending on the position of planets at the time you were born. With a inauspicious horoscope, this poor boy was pitied on by relatives and neighbours for having now future.
Nor was he extremely bright boy at school. He failed his Matriculation examinations (in English and Mathematics no less). But that year the Queen of Jamnagar delivered a son (and an heir to the throne of the princely state under the British Raj) - and all students appearing for the exams were declared pass with grace marks, including Mukund.

Mukund was married off to another Brahmin girl, and the reason his father-in-law had agreed to accept him as a groom for his daughter was that he had graduated from high school. (Apparently no one mentioned that his passing the examination was under special circumstances, and so was the exact nature of his "inauspicious" time of birth)

A year post his marriage, Mukund continued to remain unemployed, and lived of his fathers income. His wife lost their first child to illness (in a time when infant mortality was common). Then tragedy struck again, when his father die of tuberculosis, leaving Mukund to fend for his family (his wife, his mother, 3 younger brothers and a sister). Everyone blamed it on his stars.
Unable to find a job in Jamnagar, an older relative suggested, he go to the metropolis of Bombay, to try out his luck there. It was said, anyone who was willing to work could find employment there.

Mukund was sent to Bombay, with some money, and a one way train ticket. He was travelling to a city 1000 km away, where he knew no one. He was also carrying two letters, which were written by a the relative. One was addressed to a distant relative, saying that Mukund was a Brahmin from a good family, and please provide him with lodging and boarding for a short while, till he finds a job. The other was to some one working in Scindia Steam Navigation, saying that the bearer of the letter had passed his High School Matriculation examination (albeit with grace marks) Please provide him employment of any suitable nature.

Relatives, neighbours and acquaintances all thought it would be worthless. Anyways Mukund was unlucky. He couldn't find a job at home, how would he fend for himself alone far away?

Fortunately, some one at Scindia Steam Navigation pitied him, gave him a job as a clerk at Victoria Dock. While things were going smoothly there, on April 14, 1944 there was a huge blast in the docks. [See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Explosion_(1944) ]
SS Fort Stikine, which was carrying gold, cotton and explosives had caught fire. The explosion resulted in gold bars flying around. Mukund was trapped in debris in the godown of the dock, and unable to wiggle out to collect the gold. (again he cursed his luck). The luckier colleagues all ran outside to pick up gold bars, when the second and more powerful blast killed most of them.
Mukund survived the blast, since he was unlucky.

This changed his outlook in life. He stopped feeling unlucky. He believed that destiny had saved him now. Destiny had made him pass his examinations. Luck was on his side as he got a job and place to live with ease. The stars and horoscope was all humbug, and though you couldnt choose the cards dealt to you, it was all upto you to play your cards accordingly.

Now had this been a Hindi movie, he would've participated in the freedom struggle, and build a massive business empire. But he did none of that.
He worked in Scindia Steam Navigation till his retirement in 1981 as a diligent (but never a smart) employee. He and his wife raised 4 children. And he lived to be nearly 89.

And he retold this story many times over to his oldest grandchild. That's me.

He took me to see my first live cricket match, at Wankhede Stadium in 1993, where India beat England. (Anil Kumble took 6 wickets and Vinod Kambli scored a double hundred). He also taught me how to board a running mumbai local train to catch a window seat. (he was 71 and I was 11).

If he were alive, today would have been his 90th birthday.
He wasnt the one to believe in rituals, he demanded in his will that his body be donated for medical research.
So though he isnt there any more, may be his body is dissected in the Anatomy Department of Lokmanya Tilak Medical Hospital in Sion, Mumbai.

Happy Birthday Bapu-ji.

Strange Encounter with a Mystic Astrologer

This is the first time I am spending the Chinese New Year in an East Asian city. This is the Lunar Year of the Rabbit. I have been vaguely aware about each of the years associated with an animal (or a bird, or a fictitious creature such as a dragon) and the existence of horoscopes depending on the year of your birth. Though I am a sceptic, I dug out a few websites on the internet to check out my future in the year of the Rabbit. Unfortunately, all of the sources said simply one thing. The rabbit and the rooster (the bird signifying my birth year) do not get along. How much ever I tried, all sources said the same thing. Some websites tried to sugar coat the message but that was it. I had resigned for 2011 being a tough year for me.

Then came the first day of the New Year of the Rabbit. Despite it being a public holiday in Singapore, I had to be at work for a few hours. (As I said, I expected life to be tough in the year, I plodded along without complaining)

Post work when I was walking back towards home, an old Indian gentleman with a long grey beard stopped me and said in impeccable English 'Sir, you have a lucky face, and destiny shall smile upon you soon'. I was taken aback and asked him why. He told me that he was an Astrologer, his name was Yogi Singh, and had studied Vedic astrology for 21 years under the guidance of his Guru in the Himalayas. He also mentioned that he was visiting Singapore for a short while, and it was destiny which had lead us to meet here on the footpath.

Having some time to kill, and being curious, I stopped to listen more about what he wanted to say, and get some idea about my future.

The Astrologer first asked my date of birth, and then looked up towards the sky, pretended to mumble something, and then he took a good look at the lines on my palm and the creases on my forehead (did I have any?). After this he made the following statements about me: (which in hindsight were generic statements which could be applicable to anyone)

(1) You have big thoughts, but are unable to implement them. You are capable of far greater success, than what you have achieved in your career. (Hmmm, I guess every person might be thinking on the same lines, whether or not they have achieved in excess of their true talent and capabilities)

(2) You are open hearted and often speak your mind. You blindly trust others, but those you trust are secretly plotting behind your back, and bad mouth you in front of others. (again a statement one might like to believe about yourself being the nice simple hearted naive person. I may not be Machiavelli, but I am surely not the simpleton he suggested.)

(3) The last few years have been tumultuous and volatile for you. (This is another generic statement, could be applicable to anyone. Yes I have had my fair share of ups and downs, and worked in 3 different countries for 3 different employers in the last 5 years, but that could be applicable to anyone working in the Financial Services Industry in the time of the 'Credit Crisis' and the 'Great Recession')

(4) You are an easy going person, and money comes and goes easily from your hand. You are generous but lot of people exploit your generosity. (Though anyone would like to think of themselves on these lines, people who know me would say I am more of a stingy bas****d, but for this trait i blame my conservative brahminical upbringing in a middle class, Gujarati household)

(5) A girl whom I have hurt in the past, has put me under an evil spell, and this is the hindrance in my career ahead.
(Who could this lady be? I couldn't think of anyone, but by now I was almost hypnotized by the astrologer, and would have believed any more generic statements he said)

This suddenly sounded a lot like the protagonist in R.K. Narayan's short story that I had to study for my ICSE, An Astrologers Day'
But at that point of time I was actually falling in the trap.

He then asked me to think of the first thing that came in my mind. He wrote down something on a paper chit, and told me to hold the chit in my hand. I don't know why, but I thought of a Blue Lotus (may be inspired by the Tintin comic by Herge of the same title). Mr Yogi Singh then took the chit from my hand, clenched it in his fist, chanted a small prayer and then asked me to do the same. Lo and behold, when I opened the chit, it had the word 'Blue Lotus' written on it. (It could have so easily been switched when he took the chit in his fist and chanted the prayer. But till then I still was enchanted by this mystic seer)

Then finally he said, that to ward of the hindrances in my life, for me to climb the ladder of success in my career, to find one true love, live a long age and have two healthy children (his words stated verbatim) he would offer flowers to the Shiva Ling in the Himalayan Temple (how would he do this while he was in Singapore is a different question altogether) and pray for me daily. This would be done once I paid a fee of S$1000.

This is when I suddenly woke up. Now if you learn anything in a Conservative Middle Class Gujarati household in suburban Mumbai, is before spending money, take a deep breath, and count till 10. If you still think your purchase is worth the expense, only then do you go ahead and buy. For once I heeded to my parents advice, and then I understood the generic phoney statements. As soon as I refused to pay, the guy said for a fee of S$500 he would tell me the first letter of the name of the lady who was casting an evil eye on me. I joked back saying I have broken hearts of more than 26 women, so this wouldn't help me narrow down the list (Like most of my jokes, even here no one laughed). Now he got flustered and said that I had spent his time, and used his expertise and I owed him S$100.

Now finding myself in a sticky situation, I walked away seeing the closest bus stop tried to board a bus (as one might know, you never get a taxi in Singapore when you want one, and I boarded the first bus I saw, even though it was the wrong route number, and was going in the opposite direction). The guy chased me on to the bus, and told me that I could contact him on his email and gave me some Indian Mobile number. Took out a few books from his bag as the vedic texts where he learnt his astrology, and showed some pictures of him with other old Indian men with even longer beards wearing saffron robes, saying these were the great holy men from whom he had learnt the art of astrology.

This pestering almost created a scene, and the other passengers in the bus were staring at me as if I had done something wrong. I tried to get rid of him by offering ten dollars, but this was refused. Seeing a bus stop approaching, I finally said 'Please read your own palm again, and see if you had some money destined for this day' Saying this i quickly alighted the bus, and jay walked across the road and caught a empty cab (rare and lucky phenomenon in Singapore) and headed home.

Only after I reached my apartment I felt a sense of relief. It was then I thanked my stars I didn't fall for the phoney astrologer. So after all this Year of the Rabbit wasn't so bad after all.

P.S.
Wish all my readers (yes both of you) a Happy Chinese New Year of the Rabbit. Gong Xi Fa Chai ! and hope you don't fall in traps laid by phoney astrologers.

Tom Sawyer and the art of making Dosa

One lazy afternoon on a weekend, I suddenly had that craving of eating dosa (rice and lentil pancakes, traditionally cooked in south india) and unfortunately having seen my credit card statement the week before, I wasnt really inclined to eat out.

The only option was cooking it myself. The minor problem is that my culinary skills the less said the better. The only previous time I had attempted to make dosas, I burnt all the batter, and the results were disastrous to say the least.

Suddenly my 4th standard english lesson came to mind. (an extract from Adventures of Tom Sawyer by Mark Twain, the part where Tom has to whitewash Aunt Polly's fence)

So I got into action, I looked up my contact lists, and knew 3 south indian guys in Dubai*. Suryaprasad Krishnamoorthy, Shankarnarayanan Ravikrishnan, and Raj Menon**. (Damn, I should have known a guy with a short name like Raj Menon would be a fraud south indian, and wouldnt know his Rasam from his Sambhar)

Then I call up these 3 south indian blokes, and invite them for dinner to have dosa.
In the mean time, I go buy the necessary ingredients from the neighbourhood supermarket serving indian stuff.

Dinner time, I start cooking, and kind of deliberately mess up the first dosa, which leads to Suryaprasad taking the lead, and teaching me how to make a perfect one. I tell him, that yes I know cooking is fun, but then I was kind enough to let him do the honours.
In the meantime, Shankarnarayan makes a fiery rasam and sambhar. Yes I have a large heart, and allowed him to enjoy the pleasures of cooking. Raj Menon, true to his short name, stands and stares in the kitchen.
I meanwhile, act as the head chef, and direct everyone on how to make the Dosa more crispy, and how the sambhar a little more spicy.

While these guys slaved away in the kitchen, I put a DVD and watched a movie, while having dinner. And after having a wholesome dinner (burrrppp!!!) I gently prod Raj, asking him to wash up the dishes, since he didnt contribute anything in the kitchen yet, while I washed down the food with a cold beer.

And just like Mark Twain had written 150 years ago, these guys were not only thrilled to come home, cook food for me, and then even clean up afterwards, the also mentioned "Nirav, we should do this more often"

Need I say some tricks are ever green.

Note:
*: Would have been much better if I knew 3 lovely south indian women to come and cook, but unfortunately I dont know any in Dubai yet. :(
**: names might have been changed, to protect identity and ensure that these guys remain gullible enough to cook for me once more.

Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns

I read the interview of Jimmy Cayne the CEO of Bear Stearns (which has now been bought over by JP Morgan) the first big casualty of the Credit Crunch.

Inspite of everything that has been said about Jimmy Cayne (how he was playing bridge while Bear Stearns was sinking, akin the Roman emperor Nero playing the fiddle while Rome was burning) I still find a couple of things extremely interesting.

(1) He is a college drop out, and was a CEO of a multibillion dollar company which he was not the founder member. (I know Bill Gates, Michael Dell and Steve Jobs are also college drop outs, but they founded their own businesses). I guess it tells us about the times how they were different earlier, now without college education one really cant get a white collar job I guess.

(2) His line about how he got the job at Bear Stearns, is right out of a movie

Greenberg asked Cayne if he had any hobbies. Along with magic and yo-yos, bridge was a serious interest of Greenberg's. "And I said, 'Yes, I play bridge,'" Cayne recalled. "You could see the electric light bulb. He says, 'How well do you play?' I said, 'Mr. Greenberg, if you study bridge the rest of your life, if you play with the best partners and you achieve your potential, you will never play bridge like I play bridge.'"

You could have a young Amitabh Bachhan out of Deewar saying such a dialogue. (Instead of saying, "Main aaj bhi gire hue paise nahi uthha ta") Needless to say Jimmy Cayne is one of the best players in the world, and was recently ranked world no. 225 (I dont know what is his best ranking though)

Big Sailing Yacht

This is what I saw last Saturday at Portsmouth Harbour, (returning from Gosport where my sailing school Adrenaline Sailing is)

This is the 99 foot long sailing Yacht owned by Hugo Boss.

Isnt she lovely?

(Also I will have to soon blog about Sailing ... this is long long overdue)



And this is with the Spinnaker Tower in the background (it is the shape of the spinnaker sail used in racing yachts while sailing downwind)



Damn looking at these massive boats, all I can think is when will i buy mine. (I doubt I will ever be able to buy a 100 foot sailing boat, but a regular 36-40 footer will do)

One more pic (before the sails were being brought down as it is entering the harbour)




One more last question to all readers, if you ever buy a boat what would you name it?
I am confused myself, so help me think about a appropriate (hopefully funny) name for a boat.

Nirav goes flying ...

Well well well, I should have been blogging more often, especially when I have the time, as well as things to blog about.

As the topic suggests I did go flying, but flying commercial is not a big deal anyways, but I was lucky enough to be invited by a colleague (Mr. P) who has a share in a private plane, to hop on for a joy ride.

The plane which he has is a Ukrainian ex-military jet, used for training of pilots in the Ukrainian Air Force (YAK-30) and is a reliable plane for aero-batics.

Now P has this expensive hobby of flying these gas guzzlers (I am usually a person with a low carbon footprint, not having a Television at home and all) and doing all those crazy stunts like loops, flips and figure of eights, as well as flying upside down. He suggested I join him one fine sunday. Well I am never the one to say no for an adventure I agreed.

The airfield was outskirts of Greater London (outside the M25 ring road) and the nearest tube station was Epping (Far east on the Central Line) and got a ride in P's car to the North Weald airfield.

Before I boarded the plane, I was given a detailed briefing about the plane and its operating parts, and before starting the engine a serious check was done that all the moving parts were moving, and the parts which shouldnt move were not moving. (Unlike a car one cant suddenly stop a few feet ahead and fix the problems)

Then when I entered the passenger seat (mind you it is a training jet and the passenger sits behind the pilot, and has over-riding controls and a complete sets of instruments in the cockpit) I was told to strap the parachute and the seat belt.
Then Mr P said that incase of some trouble, he would try and land the plane, on some open fields but if in the worst case scenario that wasnt possible, I should open the hatch above me, and release the seat belt, and jump up, and then pull open the parachute chord.
Now this is simpler said than done. This wasnt some simple seat belt, it had straps from your shoulders and well as below from your legs.
The parachute was also strapped similarly.
In case of an emergency what if I not only nstrapped the seat belt, but also the parachute and then jumped off?
When the time came to pull the chord, it would be all over, (not that my blog readers would notice, since I post so infrequently anyways) Though I am joking about it now, it made me sweat profusely during the period of the flight.

The ride was absolutely exhilirating, and we flew from North Weald to the east coast of England, towards the Thames Estuary and the mouth of the River Crouch (just north of Thames) flowing into the North Sea. The pilot was generous enough to let me take the control for a while (it was a training plane) and let me make a simple left turn and right turn (though he held the acceleration pedals, i only turned the joystick around)
The greatest part was the take off and landing, one hardly felt a thing (more like a wheeelie on a motorcylce than the stressful ear piercing take off on a commercial passenger plane)

I dont think anywords can describe the true feeling, (atleast I am not all that expressive) but during the loops I experienced 4G acceleration force, and rest I leave the pictures to do the talking

The pilot Mr P



The Passenger Nirav




The 9 cylinder radial engine



The cockpit (Passenger)



The Scenery below from the plane

Sailing

One of the few things I have learnt (apart from at work) after moving to London has been sailing. Sailing a dinghy or a Yacht simply using windpower is one of the most amazing things I have experienced.

Infact when reading "Three Men in a Boat" by Jerome K. Jerome (written in the year 1888) I came across this paragraph

There is no more thrilling sensation I know of than sailing. It comes as near to flying as man has got to yet - except in his dreams. The wings of rushing wind seem to be bearing you onward, you know not where. You are no longer the slow, plodding, puny thing of clay, creeping tortously upon the ground; you are a part of Nature! Your heart is throbbing against hers. Her glorious arms are round you, raising you up against her heart! Your spirit is at one with hers; your limbs grow light! The voices of the air are singing to you. The earth seems far away and little; and the clouds so close above your head, are brothers, and you stretch your arms to them

(Note: the book was written before the Wright Brothers had invented with the aeroplane) Anyways the principle behind sailing as well as planes flying is the same. The difference in pressure across the sail (or the wing of an aeroplane for that matter) gives a thrust and leads to the boat moving or the plane flying.

The book is one helluva hilarious read, and though it has been written 120 years ago, still describes London and the River Thames well, and makes me wonder so little has changed since then.
Even the humour about planning for a trip and packing, about different ways men and women tow a boat (can be extrapolated to any task though) remains true. It is one sure evergreen book.

And as for sailing I am extremely lucky to have been introduced to this sport by Hemant on the River Charles in Boston 2 years ago, and am lucky to be living in London which has a great sailing culture.

The Telectroscope - connecting London and New York

I was walking by the River Thames, on the southbank from Tower Bridge to London Bridge, there i see this big new structure which with people gathered around it.



It turns out be a "Telectroscope" between London and New York with apparently a tunnel running from London to New York beneath the ocean bed of the Atlantic.

I find it hard to believe, and I guess its just something of a web camera.

The locations are also iconic, near the 2 most popular bridges in either city. (Brooklyn Bridge in NY and Tower Bridge in London) where many tourists frequent.

You can see more about it on the website

Snow in April??!!??

The weather in the UK, is so damn unpredictable, on Thursday the temperatures are north of 15 degree Celcius, and on Sunday there is snow. As one friend had rightly pointed out, "Never go short vol(ality) on UK weather"

Again today there was heavy snow (about an inch) till noon, while in the evening at 5PM it is bright and sunny all over again. (Though it looked nice and bright, with lots of sunshine, it was a bit too cold outside)

As it is said in Chaos Theory a butterfly flapping its wings in rain forests of Brazil, might cause a storm in India. Well if that is true, I am sure there might be a bunch of butterflys flapping their wings somewhere, which causes total chaos of the weather in London.

(Though I guess there are reasons for the weather to be so volatile here, I guess it is just too volatile for a person coming from a place where is summer for 8 months and rains for 4, with little variations)

Aprils Fool

You know it is Aprils Fool Day when


The biggest bank in Switzerland (UBS) announces US$ 19 billion of writedowns in its quarterly results, posts a net loss for the quarter and the share price goes up.

Though analyst estimates were US$ 11 billion of writedowns, the losses were greater than expected.

Dont know what was happening?
Was it like the shareholders thought UBS was playing an April Fools prank on them?

Well I do agree on the saying
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

DISCLAIMER:
I DO NOT WORK FOR UBS AND HAVE NO VIEWS ON THE STOCK PRICE NOR DO I OWN ANY.
THIS IS MY PERSONAL VIEW AND MY SURPRISE ABOUT STOCK PRICES BEHAVING IN A CERTAIN WAY ON A CERTAIN DAY.
THIS VIEW IS NOT SHARED BY MY EMPLOYERS OR COLLEAGUES.

Daylight Savings

It is the last sunday of March and the Daylight Savings for the year begins in the UK.
The clocks will be turned ahead by one hour (Thus London is now 1 hour behind GMT and 4h 30 mins after Indian Standard Time)
The problem is, it means i need to wake up an hour earlier tomorrow.
This Daylight saving creates more problems, and the adjustment is done at 1 AM, thus after 00:59 the clock straight away moves to 2:00.

The problem would be encountered when day light savings is abandoned and we move back to GMT on the last sunday in October.
Clock moves back one hour at 2:00 AM. hence After 1:59 AM clock moves back to 1:00 AM and hence times between 1AM and 2AM come twice.
This can surely cause lots of trouble on the last sunday of October.
(especially if you are flying from western europe to UK where the time difference is also one hour)

though Daylight savings has its advantages, (proposed by benjamin franklin to reduce energy consumption) I am sure it creates all sorts of headaches.

What do my esteemed readers feel about daylight savings themselves

More from Jodha Akbar

All the war scenes were badly shot, but did any one of you think that the war zone resembled a chess board?

First the Infantry (i.e. pawns)
Then followed by the Cavalry (The Knight)
Camels (Bishop)
Elephants (Rook)

the King who was a figure head and could only take a step at a time
The Master mind Vizier (Queen?) who directs the whole war, and can move in all directions.

In the first battle shown in them movie as well, like in any game of chess, the target was to nail the opposition king, who unwisely comes out in the open (worst strategy in chess) whereas Akbars army chief shields the king (effectively castling him)

I now need to read Sun Tzu's Art of War, to figure out further on war strategies, but i guess might as well read books on chess.

(I dont know anything about War Strategies, but surely military chiefs world over especially during cold was times must be involved in a continous one long game of chess)

MH02 - EA 7211

Yesterday I ended up seeing Jodhaa Akbar (a way to long movie, but this post isnt a review) and after seeing all the kings, generals and armies on horseback immediately reminded me of my most beloved possesion ever.

My own motorcycle, (technically belonged to my dad, bought with his money but I was the sole user)

I remembered the fights I went through for 2.5 years to buy this motorcycle, and how I finally settled for a cheaper model (a Splendor instead of a Hero Honda CBZ). HOw I cribbed in front of my friends and my obsession was made fun of by all and sundry.

I actually cried and threw temper tantrums at home, fought with Dad, Mom and Sis making this unreasonable demand. I still believe how lucky have I been,

Finally on 31st August 2001 I got hold of my motorcycle. Registration number MH-02 EA 7211. Hero Honda Splendor, Black colour, with a Lavender swoosh sign on the petrol tank. It has many many fond memories

First Puncture:
Right in the middle of Santacruz flyover on the western express highway, with Avinash Mohan as pillion, and I was late for V.V. Mahajani's lecture. (The terror, as any student of Chemical Engineering in UDCT will tell you) I remember pushing the bike for a kilometer and half over the highway till I saw a puncture shop, and cars whizzing past me.

First Accident:
This was 4-5 days after I bought the bike, while commuting to college early morning around Dharavi (after turning left from Mahim Sion Link road towards Sion Hospital, I was trying to over take a taxi from the right, and the taxi squeezed me and I lost control of the bike, went over the tiny divider, facing the wrong side of the traffic and skidded and fell off. Thankfully escaped with minor bruises and scratches on my wrists shoulders and jacket torn around my left wrist.


View Larger Map

First Wheelie:
Hahahaha, this still brings out the smile in me. Hero Honda Splendor being a high mileage and a lower pickup bike this is usually unlikely.
But one fine day, during a break between the lectures, we wanted to photocopy a classmates (Chunnu) notes. Thus I went with Jaideep Raje on my motorcycle from my college to the photocopy center (Chandan Xerox). I had forgotten the petrol lock was on and after about 50m the motorcycle sputtered to a stop. I tried starting by kicking the kick start hard but no avail. Many of my classmates were around and making fun of me. Suddenly I realised and switched on the petrol lock and the engine roared to life. In order to act cool and not to show my disappointment, I revved up the accelarator, pushed into first gear, and let the clutch go lose, and lo and behold the front tyre defied gravity and the bike went up on the rear tyre, rising a couple of feet and travelling for a 4-5 meters or so before landing back up. If anything, the embarassment and jokes cracked on my riding inability went on further. Now I was the true laughing stock. (And Jaideep was petrified)
I could only get out of this by showing off I could do a wheelie at will, (by tuning up the engine and losening the valve from the tank to let more petrol flow down) But nothing was as spectacular as the first effort.

Best Single Ride
Sunday morning in October, not much to do, my bike had just completed the running in of 1000 km so now I could go over 60 kph. So without telling my parents I non chalantly go off in my shorts, T-shirt and chappals, wearing no helmet for a long ride from Andheri to BOrivali on the Western Express highway. the first time i cross 70 kph, and then 80, after a bit of coaxing do I reach 85 and then I see lightening and hear thunder. These are the retreating monsoons in mid october. It starts pouring cats and dogs. The visibility is bad, the road is slushy, but nothing matters. I am going the fastest I had ever been on a 2-wheeler, in the worst riding conditions, the wind is blowing in my face, (polluted with exhaust from the trucks and other vehicles) rain is hitting on my back, having no protection what so ever.
But nothing ever mattered. I crossed the Dahisar Check naka did a 3rd gear U-turn (another first for me) and came speeding back home. The whole feeling was exhilarating, I was drenched in the rain, and was down with a bitter cold for a week. But nothing mattered. I now was liberated. I had my own wings and I could fly.

First Big Bad Biking Trip
This happened in IIM Ahmedabad. Hitanshu Gandhi planned the trip from Ahmedabad to Junagadh via Rajkot, then the Gir National Park to see the Lions off to Somnath Temple to pray for our forgiveness, to Diu (out of the dry state of Gujarat to territory of unlimited cheap booze) and back to Ahmedabad via Amreli.


View Larger Map

Thus 1030 km in 53 hours, seeing Lions, visiting temples, fisher villages, drinking legitimate alcohol after a long time, those were the times.
This was also the first step in formation of the biking club "Freeriders". inspite of all promises to quit long distance biking after the back pains, the butt aches, we kept going again and again and again. Covered many national parks lakes and bird sanctuaries around Ahmedabad. This was the first time I cherished my bike more than just a machine. It gave me a new identity, and the temper tantrums, fights, tears spilled (who says boys dont cry) was completely worth it.

Worst Accident:
On the Freeriders trip to Dangs, we had left at 4 in the morning, there were 5 motorcycles and Sharath Coorg was my pillion rider. Going towards the Sardar Sarovar dam, we were on the old Ahmedabad Baroda highway and I was overtaking a truck (now you will see patterns in my accidents) and I was coming back to the left. Unfortunately in the bid to overtake I had veered too far right, and while coming back in I hit a divder. (The highway was a 2 lane without dividers for most of the journey, and suddenly this obstacle came in, being dark i didnt notice it, and went over it, lost balance and fell down at a high speed, myself and Sharath Coorg sliding on the road for 10-15 feet, and bike another 20 more feet. We were lucky to be alive, with the truck behind us breaking in time, and Abhilash Unnikrishsnan right behind us, swerving to avoid us. I was mentally shattered for a while, but thankfully all friends assembled around me, (Hitanshu, Narahari, Manu Raja, Sharath, Abhilash, Salman, Vaibhav Bhamoriya and Pixa). At that point I was thinking i might turn around and go home, may be never ride again. Then the words came to my mind, the Chumbawunba's song "I get knocked down, then I get up again ..." so off we went on the journey after a cuppa chai by the near by roadside chai-walla at the next junction (who just opened up at 5 AM. Off we went on, for another back breaking, 1000 km trip.

First Race:
With Chirag Raisharma from UDCT Matunga to Andheri Bisleri Factory on the highway. Evening 4.30 PM
He had a 156 cc, Hero Honda CBZ. I had a 97.2 cc Hero Honda Splendor. But what I lacked in power, I made up in my skill, and my manouverability in the traffic. (or so I thought)
After fighting through the traffic and maintaining a narrow lead till Sion Hostpital, he raced ahead of me in Dharavi, just for me to catch up near Bandra Kurla Complex, as he sat idling at the traffic signal. Then on the stretch of open road, he went whizzing past and I realised a fact. Neither am I an athlete by any stretch of imagination, nor was my trusted bike. A nice commuter vehicle, givign decent mileage, could hold steady at 70 kph, but no racing machine.

My fastest Speed:
Though I have touched this speed many times, always when alone, the 95 kph barrier is one which my bike has never crossed. the first time was coming down the slope from the Santacruz flyover, accelarating further down the slope rather than decelarate or stop revving the accelarator as my a standard procedure.
The fastest I went with a pillion on was with Ashwin Prasad (Bamboo) when we (Along with hitanshu and Pixa on hitanshu's bike) were going to Idar for a day long bike trip. there I touched 90 on the flat streches of the road, where due to my bad shock absorbers I could feel the bump due to the lines painted on the highway.

Drunken Drive:
This should never ever be done. during my internship at ICICI bank, Shashu, VJ, Jamun, Jhatku, Fraud and a few other friends were busy drinking beer one evening at Toto's in Bandra Pali hill. After a beer too many I was barely able to stand, let alone walk. But a glass of cold water, sheer will and determination got me back home. (Or may be I was simply lucky) Riding slowly on the left, only in 2nd and 3rd gear, I some how snaking through the traffic reached home after midnight.
Just to be scolded, screamt and shouted at by my Mum and Dad.

I guess I am lucky to be alive today to tell this tale, and the bike has long gone, sold to some one by the legal owner (my dad) when I left for London. I am thus dependant on the public transport, the corwded tubes and buses of London, the expensive black cabs which cost an arm and a leg. I feel inspite of all the good times, I have been lucky to have the motorbike ride it for 20,000 km without any permanant disability inspite of my lack of athletic ability, slow reflexes and devil may care attitude.

I doubt the attachment and the charm of the first vehicle will ever be matched by anything i might ever buy again, (who knows i am yet to buy a car, or any other expensive gadget) Just like the scars and marks left on the bike by me the bike has left its permanant impression on me, changed the person who I am.

Custom Number Plates

A couple of weekends back I was walking in the suburban outskirts of London, when I came across this number plate on a BMW. The number plate is nothing if not ostentatious, especially in the UK where you cannot get a custom number plate (like in the US, where you can get any number plate using alpha numeric code unless it is previously registered)

The number is definitely CE 07 LBX, ( C E Zero, not C E O) since the British number plates are in that manner 2 alphabets and then 2 numbers followed by more alphabets.

The owner definitely must be a chief executive officer (if only of his own start up) and most probably an alumni of London Business School (CE07LBS might have been taken or X is for ex-LBS)

I have heard after the credit crunch when the Cross Over Index (called XOVER colloquially on the trading floor) blew out and since it was the series 8 which experienced the most volatility some one bid GBP 10,000 for a number plate ending in X8VER and X0VER
quite and emphatic statement that the person has made money from trading the Cross Over Index. (I read it in a free newspaper City AM ) The columnist said with the credit market crashing if no one else atleast the transport authorities in london made some money out of Cross Over.

I have had relatives (really religious ones) who had number plates "AUM SHAKTI" and "CHAMUNDA"
I am sure if I would want the plate LOSER would have already been taken.

Could all of you readers suggest any name plates worth a mention which shows the personality of the owner?

Chinese New Year

Feb 7 is the Chinese New Year, as per their lunar calendar. Thus another time to make some resolutions.

This coming year is the Year of the Rat. Last year was the Year of the Pig, and as the name suggests i spent most of it pigging out and gaining weight.

Now that it is going to be the year of the Rat, what should be done?
The last year od the rat was in 1996 and i spent most of it studying for my class X ICSE exams. I am sure this one will be different.

Some astrologer has said this year will be bad for chinese stocks (ohh come on that was a bubble which was inflating like crazy, has to burst some day).
The year of the pig brought on the subprime crisis whereas the year of the rat will it bring a solution?


In this year of the Rat we shall all be a part of a huge rat race called life.
And guess what, even if you win, you shall still be a rat. :)

And by the way I am born in the Year of the Rooster, which makes me a Rooster or a cock. (and this might be funny for my IIMA friends, not the least since i woke up early and was the first guy in the mess for breakfast)

You can see which year were you born in here.
Please do post in comments what year were you born in and what characteristics do you have. (If at all they match with your chinese zodiac.

Infact I am Libra by the western solar zodiac pattern, scorpio by the Indian lunar calendar, and rooster by the chinese zodiac. Thus I can imagine my self as a pair of scales with one side a poisonous scorpion balanced on the other side by a rooster.

Joy of eating with ones hands

Many westerners find it funny to see indians eating most of their meals by hand. Recently when i went to Chennai Dosa, a South Indian Restaurant in London, it had a poster saying:

please eat with your hands, as Indian Ayurveda believes that the true joy of eating should encompass four senses, i.e. taste, smell, sight and texture.

Well I thouhgt what about the 5th Sense (Sound)
Come on, we desis love that as well. Slurping ones tea, chewing loudly with ones mouth open. How can the sound of eating be forgotten?

Come on, please let me know who has noticed people chewing loudly or slurping their soup/tea/coffee and found it an irritant?

Does that irritate you more than getting your fingers greasy?

See Scott Adams post on a similar topic here

Damn it Feels Good to be a Banker (?!?!?)

Given the current credit crunch and the subprime crisis, not many bankers might be feeling good. Nevertheless this is a nice video made by Business School Students from Fuqua (Duke in North Carolina). The Club calls itself FuquaVision and outlines the different career opportunities open for b-school students. Apart from this video they have some more do check them out on YouTube. (Especially the Borat ones are hilarious)



(thanks Abhilash for the link)

The song is based on the Geto Boys song Damn it Feels Good to be a Gangsta



Damn all you blog readers, please leave your comments on what would you rather be?

Banker , Brander, Consultant, Non-Profit or a Gangsta ???
Or something you would say completely different?

P.S.
nothing rings more true than the line

"To all of you money lovin' blood suckin' bankers
When the market blows up
What the F*ck you gonna do,
Damn it feels good be a brander"