Sunday, August 16, 2015

India - some facts and charts about the last year

My Friend Pranav Kumar put up a post on Facebook about the negativity in India about the current year.

Pasting his post Verbatim

Tired of some of the fact-free negativity around India. So putting it out there (I put this as comment on FT):

Some big picture facts on Modi's 1st Year (Using nos for Apr 14-Mar 15):

1. Real GDP growth - 7.3% (vs 6.9% year earlier)

2. Inflation - 3.8% at end of July'15 (vs 7.73% in Aug'14)

3. Net accrual in Foreign Reserves - $61 bn (vs $16 bn last year).

4. Net FDI flows - $33 bn (vs $22 bn last year)

5. Current account deficit - $ -28 bn (down from -$32 bn last year). Much lower as % GDP

6. Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) - 3.99% (vs 4.5% last year)

7. Rupee - one of the best performers among all EMs.

8. Financial inclusion - 175 million households enrolled into banking system - this is more than what UPA achieved in last 3 years as per CMIE. Similar scale difference on toilets in schools.

9. Resource auctions - Rs 3 Lac Crores income - that's 18% of annual central budget - for government from Coal and Telecom auctions which were done transparently (as opposed to Congress which gave them to cronies and now the ministers are being probed/jailed). Govt is tracking on goals of 24/7 electricity.

10. Foreign policy - Modi's performance is by far way ahead of any other prime minister.

(Source: RBI, CSO)
Sounds like a fantastic year to me. However much Modi's critics want him to fail, his own excellence plus the oil windfall has led to great results in year 1. Happy independence day!


I decided to do put up charts (Note the change in trajectory for the last one year versus previous 5)

All data is from Bloomberg, and tried to use it from 30-Jun-2009 where available (since thats post Great Financial Crisis - which distorted lot of data in 2007, 2008 and some part of 2009)

Some places where data series has changed (e.g. CPI or GDP) I have used old and new series for what ever time line is available. 

India GDP
White - New Series (not enough data); Yellow - Old Series

India Inflation
Yellow - Wholesale Price Inflation; White - Consumer Price Inflation (new series, no history) 

India FX Reserves (USD trillion) 

India Current Account Balance (USD billion per quarter) 

India Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 
EM Currencies Performance - 2009-14
(Total Return = Interest + Currency Performance) 

EM Currencies Performance - 2015 


While in the previous 5 years India was getting worse, some of the remedial measures have been taken by RBI governor and then Finance Minister in 2013, but now from 2014, India is surely on a firm footing.

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